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Although the quarter has not yet ended, according to relevant data, it is expected that global optical transceiver sales will reach the lowest level in the past three years. According to the latest report from market research company LightCounting, the ban imposed by ZTE in the United States has a lot to do with the current market situation.
LightCounting forecasts global optical transceiver sales this quarter could be as low as $1.2 billion, the worst quarterly performance since 2015. Sales of DWDM, FTTx, and wireless front-end optical modules have been particularly hard hit and will continue to decline by 20% to 30% during the quarter. Overall, the global optical transceiver market is expected to fall by nearly 8% QoQ at the end of the quarter.
The fact is that ZTE may be the world's largest optical transceiver company (because Huawei has produced "most of" optical modules). After the ban, ZTE's contribution to the market was almost zero, creating this situation. Just a few days ago, ZTE seems to have reached an agreement with the US Department of Commerce, which may lift the ZTE ban. If ZTE can resume operations in the next few weeks, the global optical transceiver market will gain some momentum in the third quarter of this year. However, the U.S. Senate passed a new bill that includes the re-activation of the ZTE refusal order. This also means that the U.S. President Trump’s ZTE reconciliation agreement was overturned.
LightCounting said that due to the ban on ZTE, doubts in certain areas of China's system suppliers, and the upcoming trade war, the global optical communication ecosystem has brought heavy pressure. Huawei will take over ZTE's business, but due to security concerns, Huawei will also face challenges from Western countries and other countries. All this means that network operators will have to re-evaluate the supplier network and postpone the relevant projects, leading to increased costs.